Tenants who left Dubai for lower rents may return as 2026 supply grows

Some tenants who left Dubai for more affordable rents in neighbouring emirates may consider returning from 2026 onwards, as a wave of new residential supply is expected to ease rental pressure and offer greater choice, according to property market experts.

The influx of new homes — alongside mounting traffic challenges faced by daily commuters — could prompt residents currently living in Sharjah and Ajman to reassess the trade-off between lower rents and long commutes.

Data from Property Monitor shows that 648 projects were launched this year, adding more than 167,000 units to the market in 2025. Industry observers say the sustained pipeline of completions over the next few years will significantly expand tenant options.

Greater choice from 2026

“It is estimated that the emirate will see a sustained increase in supply over the coming few years, driven by projects launched recently and new developments set to enter the market,” said Harrison Rackham-Beadle, sales director at haus & haus.

“The wave of new supply expected from 2026 onwards will give tenants something they’ve lacked for a while: choice. As handovers increase in popular communities such as JVC and Dubai Hills Estate, tenants will benefit from more options and greater bargaining power. In some cases, this could result in more competitive pricing, with landlords needing to focus on quality, condition and realistic rents rather than relying on scarcity.”

Who is likely to return?

Rackham-Beadle noted that tenants who relocated from Dubai to other emirates in recent years due to rising rents may return, particularly if rental growth slows or prices soften in certain areas.

“Many tenants likely moved for affordability rather than preference. If rent increases in Dubai slow or ease in some communities, some may reconsider the trade-off of long commutes. If rents become more attractive, the value of being closer to work, amenities and lifestyle in Dubai becomes more compelling,” he said.

Demand for affordable units

Bhaskara Santosh Punuru, partner and development manager at Arthouse Hills Arjan, said the availability of competitively priced homes could play a key role in attracting residents back.

“If developers can offer value in the Dh1 million to Dh2 million range, residents currently in Ajman and Sharjah would want to return to Dubai,” he said. “Once this supply enters the market — particularly studios and one- and two-bedroom units — many people will be motivated to move back. If rentals remain attractive, then within two to three years, increased supply should create enough options for people to return.”

Rohit Bachani, co-founder of Merlin Real Estate, cautioned that the market does not reflect a classic oversupply scenario. Instead, he pointed to a shortage of quality end-user housing, especially in the mid-market apartment and townhouse segments.

“While headline figures suggest significant new supply from 2026 onwards, much of this stock is either luxury-focused, investor-held, or not designed around how families and long-term tenants typically live,” he said. “Developments that offer practical layouts, well-planned communities, nearby schools, adequate parking and everyday amenities continue to maintain high occupancy, even during heavy handover cycles.”