In the highlight of the 12th Arab Strategy Forum (ASF 2019) that took place in Dubai on Monday, a candid panel discussion involving Chinese Former Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing and former US Vice President Dick Cheney brought ‘The Global Order in 2030’ into focus.
The high-level panellists provided polar perspectives on the US and China’s roles in a shifting status quo. The session drew the participation of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai.
For his part, Dick Cheney offered his views on the world order in the next decade within the context of the rising threat from Iran, China’s oppressive regime and Russia’s designs on the region, in addition to the economic impact of technological and security trends. He further examined how these will affect the role of the US in maintaining world security.
The 46th Vice President of the US displayed his diplomatic prowess through constantly circling back to the historically strong alliances between the western superpower and the Arab world.
“For decades, there’s been a consensus of America’s influence in the world and how to use it. Humanity has benefitted from America’s protectionism of the world and its relationship with its allies in the region,” said Cheney, citing instances where US disengagement has caused the political situation in the Middle East to implode. He mentioned the withdrawal of the US troops out of Syria and the 2015 lifting of sanctions against Iran during the Obama regime that amplified instability in the region. “Our allies were left abandoned, and no one wants to feel that way again.”
Turning to the role that the US and China will play in the global status quo by 2030, Cheney said there were still concerns over China’s reputation. “We had hoped that there would be a political evolution in China, but that hasn’t happened yet,” he said.
In response to Cheney’s perspective, Li Zhaoxing said, “China will never learn from a world superpower and will never try to be hegemonic.” He confidently stated that China will never try to be a superpower like the US.
In a speech interspersed with personal anecdotes, Li Zhaoxing elaborated on China’s strong relations with the UAE and the wider Arab world, and the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Chinese foreign policy.
In the discussion that followed, Cheney said that since the end of the Cold War, the US expected that its policy towards China would have a beneficial effect on its behaviour and deepen bilateral relations. “It was disappointing to see that these expectations were not borne out – China has only grown richer, the regime has become more oppressive, and instead of evolving, it became more assertive,” Cheney said.
When asked about this gap between rhetoric and behaviour from China’s perspective, Li Zhaoxing said, “China believes in keeping the people – from China and across the world – at the centre of everything it does. The One Belt, One Road initiative is an example of how China wants to learn from others’ experiences and cooperate for peaceful coexistence. History is the best teacher, but the US has forgotten its own history. You don’t keep your promise.”
Referencing history, Li Zhaoxing dismissed the trade wars of today to take the audience back to a time when the US was fighting similar trade wars with the British. “The North American continent used to be a colony of the British empire. The Americans were ruled, exploited and bullied, and they greatly suffered. And now you want to bully others, just like the British used to.”
In Cheney’s opinion, history has cast the US in the role of an enforcer of good and not as a nation that sows discord. The upcoming decade would be bleak should the US adopt a disengagement policy, with the pressures most felt by supporters and partners in the Middle East.
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